Jailbirds: A Machine-Learning Approach to Measuring Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Bail Setting Público
Saran, Shivam (Spring 2023)
Abstract
In the United States, nearly half a million individuals are held in prisons for crimes which they have not yet been convicted for, simply due to an inability afford bail. While the overwhelming body of literature surrounding racial and ethnic bias in bail setting finds that minority defendants suffer harsher bail outcomes than non-minority defendants, the most recent literature suggests otherwise. This thesis analyzes data provided by the New York Division of Criminal Justice Services in order to (1) explain such inconsistencies in recent literature as well as (2) develop a better grasp of how race and ethnicity affect bail outcomes. To further investigate racial and ethnic disparities in the context of bail setting, this thesis introduces a novel machine-learning method: an unpooled alternative outcome model which predicts bail outcomes for defendants, had they been of another race or ethnicity. Estimates from the analysis show that, for both racial and ethnic minorities, the probability of having monetary bail assigned would be lower for minority defendants had they been non-minority.
Table of Contents
Section 1: Introduction ... 1
Section 2: Literature Review ... 7
2.1 Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Bail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 Pretrial Detention in New York ................. 12
2.3 Inconsistencies in Recent Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Section 3: Data ... 17
3.1 Overview.............................. 17
3.2 Dependent Variables ....................... 19
3.3 Independent Variables ...................... 23
3.4 Concannon and Na’s Data .................... 25
Section 4: Methods and Results ... 29
4.1 Framework............................. 29
4.2 Measuring Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Assignment of Monetary Bail........................... 31
4.3 Investigating Concannon and Na’s Results . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.4 A Machine-Learning Approach to Measuring Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Bail Setting .................. 43
Section 5: Discussion ... 44
5.1 Key Findings ........................... 44
5.2 Research Limitations and Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Section 6: Conclusion ... 48
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