The Multidimensionality of Electoral Fraud in Colombia: How Do Political Parties Choose Between Electoral Manipulation Methods? Open Access

Tenreiro-Braschi, Goldy Daniela (2016)

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This study examines the nature of electoral fraud in today's democratic world. It attempts to contribute to Political Science at large by examining two different forms of electoral fraud in Colombia: vote buying and political violence. The hope is to better understand factors that facilitate electoral fraud despite democracy. In order to do so, I analyze whether the strategic use of particular forms of electoral fraud depend on certain voter characteristics. By doing so, we begin to understand the calculated choices parties make when manipulating elections. This study analyzes a survey distributed amongst a varied group of Colombian voters in 2012 and aims to demonstrate how factors such as socioeconomic levels and strength of political ideology can influence electoral fraud strategies. I will focus specifically on Colombia, where electoral fraud occurs frequently, regardless of the presence of strong democratic institutions, making it ideal for political exploration and study. I conclude that the socioeconomic levels and strength of political preferences of a voter are directly correlated with vote buying. I also observe that, although these relationships have not been precisely estimated, the perpetration of electoral violence displays a positive relationship with strong political preferences, and a negative relationship with low socioeconomic status. Ultimately, this thesis explains the role of voter demographics in determining the use of electoral fraud.

Table of Contents

Introduction. 1

Literature Review. 11

Democracies, Political Parties, & Electoral Fraud. 11

Vote Buying Literature. 12

Electoral Violence Literature. 13

Background. 14

Colombia. 14

Theory. 18

Hypotheses. 21

Research Design and Data. 22

Variables. 24

Control Variables. 26

Model and Regressions. 26

Model. 27

OLS Regression and Results. 28

Significance. 29

Conclusion. 30

Appendix. 35

References. 37

List of Tables

Figure 1: Summary Statistics of Dependent, Independent, & Control Variables. 24

Figure 2: OLS Regression Model. 27

Figure 3: Standard Regression Model Results. 27

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