When To Influence: The Strategic Logic of State-Sponsored Disinformation Open Access

Abstract

Online foreign information operations (O-FIOs) have become a defining feature of twenty-first-century geopolitics. This thesis surveys the existing theoretical frameworks and examines the impact of a variety of characteristics of both the perpetrating and target states, and their foreign policy interactions to explain when countries pursue O-FIOs. By examining the 78 known cases of O-FIOs from 2011 through 2020 collated by Martin, Shapiro, and Ilhardt (2023), I quantitatively identify characteristics that impact the decision to pursue an O-FIO. While observing the ground truth of all O-FIOs is infeasible, this thesis argues that an empirical approach still provides insight into the factors that explain whether, when, and against whom a country may opt to initiate an O-FIO, thus better informing security specialists and legislators on how to counteract this branch of disinformation.

Table of Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . 1

2 Literature Review . . . . . . 4

. . . . . . 2.1 What Are O-FIOs? . . . . . . 4

. . . . . . 2.2 What Differentiates O-FIOs From Other Options? . . . . . . 5

. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Covert Action . . . . . . 6

. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Cyber Operations . . . . . . 7

. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Election Interference . . . . . . 7

. . . . . . 2.3 How Do Countries Execute O-FIOs? . . . . . . 8

. . . . . . 2.4 What Is Known About Why Countries Choose O-FIOs? . . . . . . 9

. . . . . . 2.5 What Is Missing? . . . . . . 11

3 Theory . . . . . . 12

. . . . . . 3.1 Actors . . . . . . 12

. . . . . . 3.2 Assumptions . . . . . . 14

. . . . . . 3.3 Hypotheses Formulation . . . . . . 16

. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Motive . . . . . . 16

. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Vulnerability . . . . . . 18

. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3 Capability . . . . . . 21

4 Methods . . . . . . 22

. . . . . . 4.1 Unit of Analysis . . . . . . 22

. . . . . . 4.2 Online Foreign Information Operations Data . . . . . . 23

. . . . . . 4.3 Decision-Making Factors Data . . . . . . 28

. . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Motive . . . . . . 28

. . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Vulnerability . . . . . . 29

. . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.3 Capability . . . . . . 31

. . . . . . 4.4 Controls . . . . . . 32

. . . . . . 4.5 Data Summary Statistics . . . . . . 33

. . . . . . 4.6 Statistical Analysis . . . . . . 33 

5 Results . . . . . . 35

. . . . . . 5.1 Main Analysis . . . . . . 35

. . . . . . 5.2 Sensitivity Analyses and Robustness Checks . . . . . . 38

. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 O-FIO Validity Assessment . . . . . . 38

. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 Missing Cases . . . . . . 39

. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.3 Alternative Dynamic Variables . . . . . . 40

. . . . . . 5.3 Data Applications For Practitioners . . . . . . 42

. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Firth Regression Predictions . . . . . . 44

. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 Decision Tree Predictions . . . . . . 45

. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Integrated Predictions . . . . . . 49

6 Conclusions . . . . . . 51 

Bibliography . . . . . . 55

Appendices . . . . . . 63

. . . . . . A Data Formulation . . . . . . 64

. . . . . . B V-DEM Electoral Democracy Indices by Perpetrator . . . . . . 66

. . . . . . C Coding of MUL OPIE Cases . . . . . . 66

. . . . . . D Alternate Depth Decision Tree Representations . . . . . . 68

. . . . . . E Most Probable Euclidean Distance O-FIOs . . . . . . 69

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	International Studies
Degree	B.A.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Political Science, International Relations
Keyword	disinformation propaganda covert action
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Eric Reinhardt, Emory University
Committee Members	Andreas Züfle, Emory University David Davis, Emory University

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