"Invest & Harvest" or the "Winner's Curse"? Evidence from the Health Insurance Marketplace, 2014-2020 Open Access

Millender, Abigail (Spring 2023)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/r494vm529?locale=en


      The Health Insurance Marketplace, established by the Affordable Care Act, experienced a sizable decline in insurer participation between 2017 and 2018. This thesis utilizes public use files from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to assess how premiums and insurer type influenced the exodus of insurers from the market during this period. Specifically, this paper aims to uncover whether insurers who priced high or those who priced low had higher odds of remaining in the market from 2014 to 2020 in order to provide evidence for either an “Invest & Harvest” strategy or the “Winner’s Curse.”  Based on my analysis, I conclude that there is evidence for the “Invest & Harvest” strategy in this market, because low premiums were significantly correlated with an insurer remaining in the market in 2017 and 2018. Moreover, I  find that Non-Profit insurers were more likely to remain in the market during this period than For-Profit insurers.

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

1.1 Introduction and Motivation

1.2 Literature Review and Contribution

2 Methods

2.1 Overview of Data

2.2 Data Cleaning and Coding

3 Thesis Results

3.1 Descriptive Analysis

2.3 Analytic Models

4 Conclusion and Discussion

4.1 Conclusions

4.2 Limitations

3.2 Discussion

About this Honors Thesis

Rights statement
  • Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.
  • English
Research Field
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor
Committee Members
Last modified

Primary PDF

Supplemental Files