Modeling the preventive effectiveness of Influenza vaccination Open Access

Anderson, Shawnee Marcel (2015)

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Vaccine effectiveness (VE), the observed relative reduction in risk associated with vaccination, is often used to measure the performance of vaccine or overall vaccination program. It gives the direct benefit of vaccination provided to an individual. However, as a population measure, it fails to account for the indirect effects of vaccination, resulting from the reduced number of infectious individuals in the population at any time point. Population vaccine effectiveness (PVE), the reduction in incidence for a population that has a vaccination program compared to the same (or similar) unvaccinated population, provides a way for public health officials to quantify the overall population benefit of vaccination. PVE however is difficult to estimate given the need for data on the population in the absence of vaccination. This thesis will provide, through use of a stochastic simulation program, a means of modeling PVE through data on vaccine coverage and observed vaccine effectiveness.

Table of Contents

A Introduction 1

A.1 Background 1

A.2 Vaccine Efficacy 1

A.3 Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) 1

A.4 Indirect Effects 2

A.5 Population Vaccine Effectiveness (PVE) 3

A.6 Thesis Goal 3

B Methods 4

B.1 Simulation 4

B.2 SIMFLU simulation routine 6

B.3 Description of the one and two stratum details 6

B.4 Estimation of PVE 7

C Results 9

C.1 Results from Models 10

D Discussion & Limitations 10

D.1 Discussion 10

D.2 Limitations 11

E References 18

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