The Effect of Workplace Injury on Player Valuation in the National Basketball Association Restricted; Files Only

Venkataramani, Aditya (Spring 2022)

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Injuries in professional basketball leagues can have significant consequences on a team's overall performance during that season and subsequently, affect fans' interest in watching their team perform. For the National Basketball Association's (NBA) general managers, it is crucial to allocate new contracts to players in the most performance-effective manner that minimizes injury risk. Thus, the focus of this paper is to study the impact that injury history has on NBA players' future valuation. Based on the principles of the contract year phenomenon, this paper examines the effect that the previous year's injury history had on the value of a player’s next contract. The main areas of focus for analyzing these effects include a player's injury proneness, the incidence of injury, and injury types. Results show that injury proneness was the most significant variable in affecting average contract value, whereby each additional injury sustained by a player negatively impacted their next contract's value by 3%. The results also alluded to the interpretation that the focus should be on classifying the severity of injuries rather than focusing on the type of injury.

Table of Contents

1 Overview

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Motivation and Research Question

1.3 Hypothesis

2 Background

2.1 Previous Work and Significance

2.2 Discussion of Contracts

2.2.1 Contract Types

2.2.2 Compensation

2.3 Discussion of Player Injuries

2.3.1 Types of Injuries

2.3.2 Other Factors Relating to Sport Injuries

2.4 Discussion of Player Performance

2.4.1 Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

2.4.2 Box Plus Minus (BPM)

2.4.3 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)

2.4.4 Win Share (WS)

2.4.5 Comparing the different metrics

3 Methodology

3.1 Participants

3.2 Study Design

3.3 Internal Validation

3.4 Data Reduction

4 Results

4.1 Discussion on Contract Value

4.2 Predictor Variables

4.3 Effects of Injury Proneness on Contract Value

4.4 Effects of Incidence of Injury on Contract Value

4.5 Effects of Types of Injury on Contract Value

4.6 Severity of Injury

5 Final Remarks

5.1 Implications of Results

5.2 Limitations of Study

5.3 Consideration for Future Studies

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