The Dynamics of Donor Behavior and Campaign Strategy Open Access
Glasgow, Joseph (Spring 2025)
Abstract
This dissertation explores the evolution of campaign fundraising and donor behavior
over the past four decades, offering insights into the motivations driving political
contributions and the strategic responses of politicians. By examining the interplay
between policy alignment, party affiliation, and donor engagement, this research sheds
light on the intricate relationship between political actions and financial support in
American elections.
The first study examining historical contribution data reveals that political do-
nations have surged in recent election cycles, with more Americans donating to
campaigns than ever before. While donor participation has expanded, contributions
as a percentage of consumer spending remain near historic lows.
The second study provides evidence that U.S. House incumbents running for Senate
outperform their party’s candidate for their former House seat by an average of 4.3
percentage points, particularly in smaller states where name recognition is greater.
Despite this electoral advantage, previous donors do not significantly increase their
contributions when candidates move to more competitive races, suggesting that donor
support remains stable regardless of office sought.
The third study examines whether donors are responsive to actions taken by
politicians. The results indicate that while strategic deviations from party lines can
yield short-term financial gains, they do not translate into long-term electoral viability.
Republican representatives who voted to impeach Donald Trump during his second
impeachment trial received, on average, over $300,000 more in contributions than
their colleagues, primarily from traditionally Democratic-leaning donors. However,
this fundraising boost did not protect them from electoral consequences, as only two
of the ten original defectors remained in Congress following the next election cycle.
The findings hold significant implications for campaign strategy. As small-donor
contributions continue to rise, campaigns must focus on increasing visibility and
engagement rather than solely cultivating relationships with large donors. The rise of
digital fundraising platforms has lowered barriers for participation, suggesting that
future campaign strategies will prioritize online engagement and social media outreach.
This dissertation highlights the increasing complexity of donor behavior and
its impact on campaign strategy. While individual contributions serve as political
expression, they also shape policy debates and candidate positioning. As political
fundraising evolves, understanding donor motivations will be essential for navigating
the future of American electoral politics.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 The Evolution of Donor Behavior: Evidence from 40 Years of Contribution
Data 5
3 Same Voters, Different Office: A New Perspective on the Incumbency
Advantage 33
4 Are Individual Donors Willing to Cross Party Lines for Politicians
Who Do So? An Examination of Donor Behavior 57
5 Conclusion 88
6 References 92
A Chapter 2 Appendix 103
B Chapter 3 Appendix 110
C Chapter 4 Appendix 112
About this Dissertation
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