Assessing the Air Quality and Health Impacts of Decarbonization Strategies in Connecticut Open Access

Abstract

Background: Decarbonization strategies have emerged as crucial measures for mitigating climate change and enhancing air quality. Moreover, decarbonization is anticipated to yield significant health co-benefits, such as reduced respiratory and cardiovascular disease among vulnerable populations. Connecticut faces particularly poor air quality, with all eight counties currently in nonattainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard.

Methods: This study examines the impact of decarbonization on air quality, health outcomes, and environmental justice in Connecticut using modeling tools developed by the U.S. EPA. Two scenarios (DC1 and DC2) were modeled until 2050 in GCAM, incorporating a combination of state and federal legislation and targets, and generating county-wise emissions data for key pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOC, NH3, and PM2.5). These emissions were input into COBRA to estimate PM2.5 concentrations and health benefits. Finally, EJScreen data was utilized to assess correlations between demographic indicators and projected mortality costs.

Results: Decarbonization scenario DC1, which includes regional CO2 caps, California Light-Duty vehicle electrification targets, and the Medium and Heavy-Duty Electrification Memorandum of Understanding, is expected to yield $80.7 million (2017$) in health benefits for Connecticut annually. DC2, which employs the same targets but limits biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) usage, yields $99.4 million in health benefits annually. The association between health benefits and decarbonization appears particularly strong among minority populations, with a correlation coefficient exceeding -0.87 for DC2.

Conclusion: The findings indicate that more ambitious decarbonization targets could yield substantial health benefits for Connecticut residents. Further research is required to analyze regional emission contributions to Connecticut's overall air quality.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

Background

The Link Between Air Pollution and Health

Decarbonization Methods

Health Co-Benefits of Decarbonization

Impacts on Connecticut

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

METHODS

Scenarios

1.     Reference Case

2.     Decarbonization Case (DC1)

3.     Decarbonization with PM Reductions (DC2)

Modeling and Analysis

RESULTS

Section 1: Emissions & Air Quality

Section 2: Health Impacts

CONCLUSION

Summary of Major Findings

Limitations of the Study

Next Steps

APPENDIX

I.     State GHG Targets (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2022)

II.    Regional Emissions Impact on CT

About this Master's Thesis

Rights statement

• Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.

School	Rollins School of Public Health
Department	Environmental Health
Degree	M.S.P.H.
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Environmental Health Economics, Environmental Health Sciences, Public Health
Keyword	Connecticut Co-Benefits Health Equity Decarbonization PM2.5 Air Pollution
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Noah Scovronick, Emory University
Committee Members	Dan Loughlin, Environmental Protection Agency

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