War on Drugs: Drug Trafficking and its Effect on Post-Civil War Peace Open Access

Delgado, Brian (2016)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/c821gk05k?locale=en


While research exists regarding the role of drug trafficking in civil wars, little has been discussed regarding the impact of drug trafficking on post-civil war peace. This study argues that countries with greater amounts of drug trafficking are more likely to experience a failure in peace following a civil war, returning to the conflict they have recently emerged from. Furthermore, this project posits that more comprehensive peace treaties can reduce this impact that drug trafficking has in increasing the likelihood of peace failure. This theoretical expectation is based on the notion that rebel groups face costs when they abandon a conflict, and that the peace treaty must offer sufficient benefits for rebels to accept the loss of narcotrafficking profits. Analysis is conducted using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program data set and data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. It utilizes a linear regression model to test the effect of drug seizure size on the likelihood of peace failure, as well as its interaction with different attributes associated with more comprehensive peace treaties. Findings indicate a positive relation between the size of drug trafficking in a country and the likelihood of renewed conflict, and that more comprehensive peace treaties reduce this effect. However, caution is urged with this interpretation due to the low significance values, and more research must be done to support these claims. This paper provides some groundwork for future quantitative studies on how drug trafficking affects post-civil war scenarios.

Table of Contents

Introduction. 1

Literature Review. 2

Drug Trafficking and Rebel Groups. 2

Committing to a Peace Agreement. 4

Comprehensive Peace Agreements. 6

Theory. 7

Research Design. 11

Data. 11

Method of Analysis. 14

Analysis. 18

Conclusion. 21

Appendix. 23

Bibliography. 25

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