Understanding the rise of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variants in Atlanta and Georgia Open Access
Lu, Yang (Spring 2022)
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. This virus causes pandemics around the world. Previous studies state that Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 are more transmissible than others. Thus, we are interested in the rationale of higher transmissibility, which may cause the predominance of a certain lineage in the whole population. We utilize data from Emory Healthcare and Grady Healthcare and data from GISAID to analyze lineage evolution over time in the Atlanta area and in the whole Georgia state. Clinical information used to research viral loads are also from Emory Healthcare and Grady Healthcare system. We use heat maps to visualize lineage data while using boxplot to visualize Ct values data. From our results, we find no significant difference for lineages distribution from March 2021 to December 2021 in the Atlanta area and the whole Georgia state. Alpha variant is predominant from March to May and start to decline in June, in which month Delta and Delta Plus start to increase and gradually predominate. Delta and Delta Plus eliminate almost all other lineages during their period. In December, Omicron emerges and Delta and Delta Plus start to decline. Other than lineage behaviors, we also find no significant difference for Ct values, which is an approximate to viral loads, between lineages of SARS-CoV-2. However, we have not controlled other factors affecting Ct values in this study such as duration of symptoms and vaccination status; further studies may include those factors. In conclusion, this study provides an understanding of why Delta and Delta Plus can predominate the population while other lineages cannot. If methods in this study can be applied to a broader scale and more factors are considered for further researches, we will achieve a better understanding on SARS-CoV-2 pandemics and on pandemic surveillance.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction .............................................................................. 1
2. Method ..................................................................................... 3
3. Results ...................................................................................... 5
4. Discussion ................................................................................14
5. Conclusion ................................................................................17
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