Dynamic 2-Stage Presidential Election Campaign Resource Allocation Model Open Access

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic two-stage presidential election resource allocation model to analyze how candidates optimize campaign resources under uncertainty. Extending the probabilistic voting framework to a multi-period setting, the model incorporates evolving information, stage-specific shocks, and ideological preferences across states. In the late stage, candidates allocate resources proportionally to a state’s electoral votes and the precision of its understanding of uncertainty. In the early stage, ideological “swing-ness” becomes an additional factor: states with more centered ideological preferences yield higher marginal returns, making front-loaded investments in swing states optimal for candidates. The model further explains why candidates may adjust allocations to the same state over time as uncertainty resolves and time progresses. Visual campaign spending patterns from the most recent election align with the model’s predictions. The paper concludes by outlining extensions involving unified budget constraints, normal-distributed shocks, and multi-stage dynamics.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Section 1: Introduction …………………………………………………………………….………………………..1

Section 2: Literature Review…………………………………………………………….…………………………3

Section 3: Model…………………………………………………………………..………….…………………………5

Section 4: Stylized Facts……………………………………………………………….…………..…………….…15

Section 5: Discussion………………………………………………………………….………..……………..….…17

Section 6: Conclusion………………………………………………………………….………..……………..……19

About this Honors Thesis

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School	Emory College
Department	Quantitative Science
Degree	B.S.
Submission	Honors Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Economics, General Political Science, General
Keyword	Probabilistic voting model Presidential election Dynamic game
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Dr. Allison Stashko, Emory University
Committee Members	Dr. Daniel Fershtman, Emory University Dr. Bree Ettinger, Emory University

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