Exploratory Analysis of Environmental and Social Drivers of Wildfires: Oregon, USA Open Access

Abstract

Wildfires are an ecological disturbance intrinsic to many forest, shrub land and grassland ecosystems and play an important role in shaping these ecosystem processes. Despite the necessary (and often) beneficial role of wildfires, they have numerous harmful impacts. From a public health perspective, wildfires adversely affect human mental and physical health. There is rising concern that these undesired health outcomes will intensify in the future as climate models predict an increase in wildfire frequency, severity, and extent throughout the United States. This study sought to explore historic wildfires and understand what anthropogenic and environmental factors are key drivers for wildfire incidence in the state of Oregon. We employed basic descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and univariate logistic regression to achieve this end. Results from the analyses showed that wildfires are increasing in both frequency and extent throughout the state. Furthermore, environmental variables including drought, temperature (average, maximum, and minimum), precipitation, and land cover type are significant predictors for wildfire occurrence in Oregon. This study was the first to assess the importance of such variables for wildfire incidence in Oregon.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION............................................9

WILDFIRES.................................................10

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES - CLIMATE....10

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES - TOPOGRAPHY ...11

SOCIAL VARIABLES....................................12

WILDFIRES IN OREGON..............................13

WILDFIRES AND HEALTH............................15

PURPOSE OF STUDY....................................16

METHODS..................................................17

DATA COLLECTION.....................................17

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS.............................19

UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS..............................20

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA)..............20

RESULTS....................................................20

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS.............................20

Wildfires (all)..............................................20

Wildfires (anthropogenic vs. natural)............22

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA)...............23

UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS...............................24

Fire vs. Control............................................24

Anthropogenic vs. Natural Fire.....................24

DISCUSSION................................................25

LIMITATIONS..............................................27

FUTURE RESEARCH.....................................28

CONCLUSION.............................................28

REFERENCES..............................................29

TABLES AND FIGURES.................................32

APPENDICES..............................................43

APPENDIX I................................................43

About this Master's Thesis

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• Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.

School	Rollins School of Public Health
Department	Environmental Health
Degree	MPH
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Health Sciences, Public Health Environmental Sciences Environmental Health
Keyword	environmental health climate change wildfires
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Yang, Liu, Emory University Bell, Jesse, NOAA
Committee Members	Tolbert, Paige, Emory University

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