Development of Agreement Measures for Studying Consistency of Menstrual Cycle Length and its Relationship to Fertility Open Access
Daya, Natalie Rula (2012)
Abstract
The menstrual cycle acts as an overt indicator of reproductive
health. Irregular
menstruation with inconsistency in cycle length may affect
fertility and risk of chronic
diseases such as breast cancer. In this study we are interested in
quantifying the
consistency of menstrual cycle length in terms of an agreement
measure and evaluating
the association between the consistency of cycle length and a
woman's reproductive
health and characteristics such as diet and lifestyle. There are
several challenges in
conducting agreement analysis for our study: there is an unequal
number of cycle length
observations across subjects; there are censored observations in
recorded cycle lengths;
standard agreement method only provides group-level summary
statistics and does not
allow modeling agreement in terms of subject-specific covariates.
In this thesis, we aim
to develop appropriate statistical methods to address these issues.
To accommodate
censoring, we propose to impute cycle lengths for censored
observations using the mean
residual life estimated based on a parametric model. We first
consider a group-level
agreement method based on the intra-class correlation coefficient.
We then propose a
novel within-subject agreement method for replicated measurements
by generating paired
data based on the replications within each subject and then
estimating an agreement
measure based on the generated pairs. We consider subject-specific
agreement index
based on two different measures: Concordance Correlation
Coefficient (CCC) and Total
Deviation Index (TDI) and compare their performance. We then model
the subject-
specific agreement measures in terms of subject's covariates
effects. Our results show
that the new within-subject agreement method provides more
biologically meaningful
results than the group-level method. The TDI which is a more
straightforward agreement
measure provides better results than the CCC which is a scaled
agreement measure.
Consistency of a woman's menstrual cycle length is significantly
associated with
pregnancy status, stress level and caffeine consumption.
Table of Contents
List of Tables
........................................................................................................................
i
List of Figures
......................................................................................................................
ii
1.
Introduction.....................................................................................................................1
2. Motivation and
Background...............................................................................................5
2.1 Motivation example
...........................................................................................................5
2.2 Some agreement measures
.................................................................................................6
3. Descriptive statistics of the data
set..................................................................................9
4. Accommodation of censored
observations........................................................................10
5. Group-level agreement
method........................................................................................12
6. Subject-specific agreement
method.................................................................................15
6.1 Generation of paired-observations based on replicated
measurements .......................................15
6.2 Concordance Correlation Coefficient
...................................................................................15
6.3 Total Deviation Index
.......................................................................................................18
7.
Modeling.........................................................................................................................24
7.1 Covariates
.....................................................................................................................24
7.2 Modeling covariates
.........................................................................................................27
7.3 Sensitivity
analysis...........................................................................................................31
8.
Conclusions....................................................................................................................32
8.1 Summary
.......................................................................................................................32
8.2 Future research
..............................................................................................................34
References
..........................................................................................................................35
Appendix
.............................................................................................................................36
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