Association of political partisanship and COVID-19 case rates at the county level in Georgia during the Delta surge of 2021 Open Access
Holton, Aaron (Spring 2022)
Abstract
Abstract
Association of political partisanship and COVID-19 case rates at the county level in Georgia during the
Delta surge of 2021
By Aaron Holton
Background
Regional responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States have been highly politicized in
terms of both policy and individual behaviors. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Georgia have varied at
the county level throughout the pandemic. The aim of this study was to assess the association between
county-wide political leanings and county level COVID-19 case rates in Georgia during the delta surge of
2021.
Methods
County level COVID-19 case data were collected from the Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH).
The delta surge was inclusive of cases with a positive test between July 1 and November 1, 2021. The total
percentage of all county residents who voted republican in the 2020 presidential election was obtained
from the Georgia Secretary of State website. The counties were then divided into political tertiles to create
the exposure variable. County case rates were modeled using a Poisson regression. Each county’s total
population was used as the offset in the Poisson model. Race, education, and population density were
controlled for in the model.
Results
Among the 158 counties analyzed, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 during the delta wave ranged
from 1.2% – 6.4% with a median of 3.3% (IQR 2.6 - 4.1). As the percent of a county that voted republican
increased, the risk of COVID-19 also increased by as much as two times.
Conclusion
The percentage of county residents who voted republican in the 2020 presidential election was positively
associated with increasing county rates of COVID-19 during the delta surge of 2021 in Georgia. This
association was statistically significant when comparing the most republican counties to the least
republican counties.
Table of Contents
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About this Master's Thesis
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