Association of political partisanship and COVID-19 case rates at the county level in Georgia during the Delta surge of 2021 Open Access

Holton, Aaron (Spring 2022)

Permanent URL: https://etd.library.emory.edu/concern/etds/3b591993k?locale=en

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Association of political partisanship and COVID-19 case rates at the county level in Georgia during the

Delta surge of 2021

By Aaron Holton

Background

Regional responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States have been highly politicized in

terms of both policy and individual behaviors. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Georgia have varied at

the county level throughout the pandemic. The aim of this study was to assess the association between

county-wide political leanings and county level COVID-19 case rates in Georgia during the delta surge of

2021.

Methods

County level COVID-19 case data were collected from the Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH).

The delta surge was inclusive of cases with a positive test between July 1 and November 1, 2021. The total

percentage of all county residents who voted republican in the 2020 presidential election was obtained

from the Georgia Secretary of State website. The counties were then divided into political tertiles to create

the exposure variable. County case rates were modeled using a Poisson regression. Each county’s total

population was used as the offset in the Poisson model. Race, education, and population density were

controlled for in the model.

Results

Among the 158 counties analyzed, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 during the delta wave ranged

from 1.2% – 6.4% with a median of 3.3% (IQR 2.6 - 4.1). As the percent of a county that voted republican

increased, the risk of COVID-19 also increased by as much as two times.

Conclusion

The percentage of county residents who voted republican in the 2020 presidential election was positively

associated with increasing county rates of COVID-19 during the delta surge of 2021 in Georgia. This

association was statistically significant when comparing the most republican counties to the least

republican counties.

Rights statement

Permission granted by the author to include this thesis or dissertation in this repository. All rights reserved by the author. Please contact the author for information regarding the reproduction and use of this thesis or dissertation.

School	Rollins School of Public Health
Department	Epidemiology
Degree	M.P.H.
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Health Sciences, Epidemiology
Keyword	Delta COVID-19 Politics Georgia
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Jodie L. Guest, Emory University

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