A Simulation Study on a Fly-healthy Network Open Access

Abstract

There are a number of cases reported that infectious diseases are transmitted during commercial air travel. Individuals on a commercial flight are connected together to form large social networks. Study of their movement and contacts provides a better understanding of the spread of infectious disease. Such understanding, in turn, helps us to build effective disease control strategies.

We conducted a simulation study based on our observed network and we simulated the spread of an infectious disease. Each individual was set to be infectious one at a time, and we calculate the resulting incidence proportion during the flight.

We found that, in general, we would place the sick passenger in the window seats and in the front or the back on the plane if we want low incidence of transmission. Also, aisle seats are considered more risky than window and middle seats.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Page #

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………. 1

Background ……………………………………………………………………………… 2

Data Collection 2

Programming Software 3

Network Data Structure 4

Methodology………………………………………………………………………… 5

Network Analysis and Visualization 5

Simulation Study on Disease Transmission 5

Results………………………………………………………………………………………. 8

Network Analysis and Visualization 8

Summary Statistics of the Network 9

Degree Distribution 10

Simulation Results 12

Summary and Discussion………………………………………………………….. 17

References………………………………………………………………………………….. 19

Appendix …………………………………………………………………………………… 21

About this Master's Thesis

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School	Rollins School of Public Health
Department	Biostatistics and Bioinformatics
Subfield / Discipline	Biostatistics - MPH & MSPH
Degree	MSPH
Submission	Master's Thesis
Language	English
Research Field	Biology, Biostatistics
Keyword	simulation disease spread network aircraft
Committee Chair / Thesis Advisor	Hertzberg, Vicki S, Emory University
Committee Members	Cotsonis, George A, Emory University
Partnering Agencies	Does not apply (no collaborating organization)

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